Simon Tisdall quotes my book in his column in The Guardian

Close by the double-eaved Heralding Spring Pavilion, overlooking Kunming Lake in the tranquil heart of Beijing's Summer Palace, hundreds of voices joined last week in impromptu, joyous celebration of the "new China". The singers, led by a jolly conductor and a four-piece ensemble, belted out love songs and folk ditties. This was no party event; there was no approved script. Instead, all those present seemed to be expressing an ebullient collective optimism about the country's future. Nearly 150 years after British and French troops sacked the Summer Palace, China's transformation from humiliated feudal victim to advancing global hyperpower now looks to many to be unstoppable. The crowd in the pavilion typified the change. A cocky Communist leadership daily proclaims it. And this August, if all goes to plan, nothing will more aptly symbolise it than the grandiose pageant of the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Not since the prewar era have the games assumed such a key role in the assertion of the virility, potential, and sense of entitlement of a nation reborn……….

• Read his column in the Guardian

Lord Meghnad Desai quotes me in the Times of India

In a recent book, Mark Leonard, who runs a think tank on foreign policy in London, reports on the many discussions going on within China about economic and political reform. Two things struck me. The Chinese intellectuals find myriad objections to democracy - western style, corrupt, limited voter choice etc. They evade the issues cleverly and one can see that until the big brother gives a nod from above, there will be no real progress…..

• Read Lord Desai's column in the Times of India

Watch a short film with myself and Lord Malloch Brown

On Tuesday 26th February, the Foreign Policy Centre hosted an event to launch my book in the House of Commons. The event was chaired by FT columnist Gideon Rachman. It featured speeches by Foreign Office Minister and former Deputy Secretary General of the United Nations Lord Malloch Brown, the Chinese political scientist Zheng Yongnian, and myself. British satellite News produced a short film about the event.

• watch a short film about the event

read my cover story in Prospect Magazine

I will never forget my first visit, in 2003, to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) in Beijing. I was welcomed by Wang Luolin, the academy's vice-president, whose grandfather had translated Marx's Das Kapital into Chinese, and Huang Ping, a former Red Guard. Sitting in oversized armchairs, we sipped ceremonial tea and introduced ourselves. Wang Luolin nodded politely and smiled, then told me that his academy had 50 research centres covering 260 disciplines with 4,000 full-time researchers……

• Continue reading my piece in Prospect Magazine

I was invited to discuss my book on the BBC's "Start the Week" programme which is presented by Andrew Marr. I was in discusssion with three other people. First up was "rogue sociologist" SUDHIR VENKATESH whose book chronicles a decade spent with gangs in America's most impoverished housing projects on the South Side of Chicago. Then we heard from PETER BERRY about his new series for BBC One that portrays a life in the surveillance socity. The final participant was the author LISA APPIGNANESI who talked the role that women have played in the history of how we understand madness and its treatment.

• Listen to the Programme on the BBC's web-site

Spielberg was right to step down but governments should look at China's policies within a historical context, and have a strategy for influencing Beijing beyond the summer of 2008.

• Read my op-ed in the Times

Read about my new book (formally published 18th Feb 2008)

We know all about the statistics of China's rise – dizzying growth rates , vast currency reserves, new cities built every week. But have heard very little about China as a powerhouse of ideas about politics, economics and world order. Mark Leonard introduces us to the thinkers shaping China's future, and opens up a hidden world of intellectual debate that could change our world. Leonard reveals a Chinese model of Globalisation that could re-shape the face of Africa, Latin America and the Middle East. He shows how experiments with focus groups and opinion polls are changing China from a traditional authoritarian state to a new 'deliberative dictatorship'. And he reveals how Beijing hopes to use a "China Dream" to challenge America's military power? What does China Think? charts the development of a Chinese worldview and portrays the factions battling for influence:

• The "New Left" who want a gentler form of capitalism with a social safety net that could reduce inequality and protect the environment.
• The "New Right" who think that freedom will only come when the public sector is dismantled and sold off, and a new, politically active "propertied class" emerges.
• The "Neo-Comms", cousins of American neo-cons, want to use military modernisation, cultural diplomacy and international law to assert China's power in the world.

Leonard predicts a world in which we are as interested in the Chinese "Neo-Comms" plans for Asia as we were in the "Neo-Cons" attempts to reshape the Middle East; where the political struggle in the Communist Party is as vital as the battle between Hillary Clinton and John McCain; and where protesters outside the World Bank will complain as much about the "Beijing Consensus" as the "Washington Consensus".

• Read more…
• Buy it from Amazon

Hello - I am Executive Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the first pan-European think tank with offices in Berlin, London, Paris, Sofia (we are opening soon in Rome and Warsaw). Previously I worked at the Centre for European Reform and was founding director of the Foreign Policy Centre. I have spent time in Washington as a Transatlantic fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, and in Beijing as a visiting scholar at the Chinese Academy for Social Sciences. My first book, Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century, was translated into 18 languages. My essays and articles have appeared in publications on both sides of the Atlantic including The Economist, The Guardian, The Financial Times, The Spectator, The Sun, Libération, Die Welt and The Wall Street Journal. Please let me know what you think of my books, my articles or the web-site by emailing me at mark.leonard@ecfr.eu

• Buy my first book, "Why Europe will run the 21st Century"
• Read reviews of "Why Europe will run the 21st Century"
• Visit ECFR's website

Add your name to this important petition

In recent days Turkey's citizens have been carefully watching the reactions of politicians across Europe and the United States to the memorandum by the Turkish military issued on April 27. In these fraught circumstances, it is vital to send an unambiguous message to Turkish society. We strongly regret this intervention that could harm Turkey's progress as well as its relations with the European Union………….

• Read the statement - add your name!

read my interview with Yuschenko in the Spectator

I had almost given up. The time of our appointment had changed six times in 24 hours. The presidential palace was — as it still is — in full crisis, and my interview seemed to be receding out of reach. When he finally showed up, the man at the centre of the political storm seemed perfectly calm. Victor Yuschenko was wearing a well-cut suit and a bright red tie, but it was his face that captivated my attention. This was the famous face that had shocked the world and launched a revolution. Disfigured by pocks and carbuncles, it tells the story of Yuschenko's near-death and of his country's bitter struggle for democracy. But now Yuschenko has traded the barricades for office, and his pockmarks are obscured by a protective cloak of make-up — salmon pink, like the satin wallpaper and armchairs of his presidential suite………

• Read the article in full

Read about my new CER pamphlet

The world in 2020 will not see a new world order, but a competition between four ideas of how the world should be run: an American world striving for a balance of power that favours democracy; a 'Eurosphere' whose support for democracy is coupled with a belief in international institutions; an 'axis of sovereignty' led by China and Russia that sees multilateral institutions as protection from western interference; and a Middle Eastern 'faith zone', defined neither by democracy nor the rule of law. This essay sketches the outlines of the 'quadripolar world' that is awaiting us.

• Buy the pamphlet from the CER
• Read a summary on the CER Blog

read my piece on Cameron's 'I'm No Neocon' speech

The Iraq war, the rise of China and India, climate change, the Lebanon and al-Qaida have all conspired to turn foreign policy into a key battleground for the next election. At a time when British security and prosperity depend - at least in part - on domestic echoes of events beyond our borders, it is hard for David Cameron (or Gordon Brown for that matter) to pose as a credible candidate for the highest office in the land without having a foreign policy philosophy. The Tory leader's "I'm no neocon" speech is designed to fill that vacuum. It is vintage Cameron. By combining an attack on neocons with one on anti-Americanism he comes across all balanced and moderate. But Cameron's speech tells us more about how British people want to think about themselves, than about how we should organises ourselves to influence global events. It is more "feel good" identity politics, than foreign policy strategy.

• Read and comment on my Guardian blog

Read my article on Brown's foreign policy in the Spectator

Imagine the scene. It is 2007. The pale November sun is slowly melting the frosted roofs of Camp David. A throng of journalists — bristling with cameras, arc lamps and microphones — jostle for position around two podiums. Suddenly the doors of a log cabin swing open, and President Bush and Prime Minister Brown walk out for their first joint press conference. They ignore the battery of predictable questions — 'Does Prime Minister Brown — like Blair and Bush — use Colgate toothpaste?'; 'Have the two leaders prayed together?'; 'Will they use military strikes against Iran?' After the obliga-tory platitudes about the importance of the special relationship, Brown drops his bomb-shell: the British mission in Iraq has been accomplished; our boys are coming home.

• Read the piece in full

Read our interview with Sir Michael Jay in Prospect

THIRTY YEARS AGO, the foreign and commonwealth office (FCO) acted as Britain's gatekeeper to the world, defining

its interests and cementing links with its allies. Today it is often overshadowed by 10 Downing Street on diplomacy,

bypassed by domestic departments on European policy and global economic issues, and outspent by the department for international development (DfID). Like many foreign ministries around the world, the FCO is facing budget cuts, low morale and a crisis of purpose. The war in Lebanon has highlighted the FCO's uncomfortable role within the government: on the key strategic issues, British foreign policy is driven by the prime minister rather than the FCO. Charles Grant and I spoke to Sir Michael Jay - the head of the FCO - until June about his attempts to reform this august institution

• Read Charles Grant's and my Interview with Michael Jay

I have just returned from Belarus where I witnessed the vote

On 19 March the people of Belarus voted in a presidential election. The result was neither free nor fair: President Alyaksandr Lukashenka announed a land-slide victory of 82.6%. As protestors take to the streets to challenge the results, the European Union must work out how to react. In this CER policy brief, which I have written with my colleague Charles Grant, after a vist to the Belarusian capital Minsk where we met leading opposition andf government figures we set out a possible approach. The EU should offer the regime big incentives to reform, but also make clear that any further repression would provoke a tough response. The EU should step up its efforts to support civil society and overhaul its methods for aiding NGOs.

• Read a CER policy brief by Charles Grant and myself
• Read our article in the Wall Street Journal

Was Iraq doomed to fail or did Bush mess it up?

The Iraq war started as a war of ideas. It erupted from the most divisive clash of ideology since the end of the cold war. Every facet of the case for war became a site of conflict. And now that the war is over, the battle to interpret its legacy is every bit as fraught. After the polemics arguing for or against invasion, and the "fly on the wall" accounts of the run-up to war, a third generation of books asks a simple question: was Iraq doomed to fail or did George Bush mess it up?

• Read my article in Prospect Magazine

read my piece in the Daily Telegraph about Google and China

Google, the popular search engine that floated on the stock market last year, has not abandoned its corporate motto: "Don't be evil". But the global media have delighted in exposing the ethical contortions it has faced in setting up its new Chinese website. This company - founded by anarchists who believe that "information just wants to be free" - has done a deal with the world's biggest censor, and agreed to censor itself. Less entertaining, but more interesting, is what this saga tells us about China.

• read my article in the Daily Telegraph

On November 24th, the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency meets in Vienna, and top of their agenda is Iran's efforts to develop a nuclear bomb. After his election in August, Iran's new president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, restarted Iran's nuclear programme. Fears about a nuclear Iran mounted in October, when he announced that he wanted to see Israel "wiped off the map". These two developments appear to undermine the EU's argument that its approach towards Iran - based on incentives and sanctions - is more effective than the US one, which relies on isolation and the implicit threat of military force. However, in this new CER working paper, I argue that EU diplomacy is still the only way to stop Iran's nuclear programme. I propose a short-term bargain that could persuade Iran to put its nuclear ambitions on ice. I end by setting out the steps that the EU - alongside the US - should take in the medium to long term to encourage a more open and accountable regime in this strategically important country.

• Buy the full working paper from the CER's site now!

The prestigious magazine, Foreign Affairs, runs a monthly ranking of books on American foreign policy and international affairs. The US edition of my book "Why Europe will run the 21st Century" is on it for the second month.

• See the top ten list fon the Foreign Affairs web-site

to mark the US edition of my book

The present moment might seem an curious time to be arguing, against the conventional wisdom, that Europe will "run" the 21st century. After all, isn't the EU famously rife with internal division? Didn't France and the Netherlands recently reject the new EU constitution? Didn't Austria just come perilously close to derailing Turkish membership in the EU, Europe's latest grand venture? Isn't Europe's workforce graying dramatically, and aren't some of its major economies, trussed up in red tape and burdened by overgenerous welfare states, in steep decline? As for Europe's military power, the less said the better. What does Europe have to compare with the United States, the greatest, wealthiest world power in world history? Or, for that matter, with China and India, the 21st century's rising powers?

• red the interview with Mother Jones Editor Julian Brookes

Can Europe's neighbourhood policy deliver?

With the start of negotiations with Turkey, the European Union has signalled that it will take responsibility for the geopolitical shape of its neighbourhood. Now it needs to devote the same degree of attention to the next wave of countries beyond its borders. Turkey's neighbour Georgia dramatically declared its intention of joining the West in the Rose revolution of 2003. Its role as an energy transit country, its 'frozen conflicts' and its proximity to Russia give it real importance to Europe's economic and security future. But so far the EU's response to this fragile but rapidly modernising country has been underwhelming. In advance of the Georgian foreign minister's first visit to London, Mark Leonard and Charles Grant set out an action plan for deploying Europe's 'transformative power' in a vital part of the European neighbourhood.

• Read the new CER pamphlet I have written with Charles Grant

Jonathan Freedland quotes me in his column in the Guardian

The EU has - at the last minute - decided to start negotiations with Turkey. So enlargement is not dead! In Ankara we have seen Europe's "transformative power" in action - encouraging the country to pass 8 packages of constitutional reform abolishing the death penalty, giving minorities rights, and starting to grapple with torture in its prisons. The challenge now is to get Europe's citizens on board. Jonathan Freedland quotes me in his column on this in the Guardian newspaper:

The optimists reckon the carrot of EU membership will persuade Turkey to keep on changing. For Mark Leonard of the Centre for European Reform this is where the EU's bureaucratic style comes into its own. Submit Turkey to a decade of Brussels "nit-picking" and Ankara will have to clean up its act - not just passing liberal laws but implementing them. "It won't be good enough to do it for 10 minutes," says Leonard. "It's got to be for 10 years." This is what Europhiles mean when they speak of the "soft power" of the union, the capacity to draw countries towards democracy through the magnetic pull of EU-style prosperity and stability. How much better, and more effective, than the "hard power" of George Bush: democracy delivered by bombs from the sky and boots on the ground.

• read Jonathan Freedland's column

I was interviewed about the results by the Guardian and Mail

The inconclusive result of Germany's election has deprived British Prime Minister Tony Blair of a much-sought ally in a crusade to reform Europe's lacklustre economy, political analysts said on Monday……"I think Downing Street was hoping for a clear victory [by Merkel] for three reasons," agreed Mark Leonard, of the Centre for European Reform think tank in London. "First of all, for personal reasons, because relations with Gerhard Schröder had reached an all-time low. Secondly, for political reasons, because it [Downing Street] wants allies for economic reform in Europe – and a clear, strong Merkel mandate would have completely changed the political dynamics. And thirdly, in a way, they just wanted to see a government with a mandate. When Germany is so internally preoccupied with its problems, it's not really playing a constructive role … It's tempted to block things rather than act."

• read the piece…

read an interview with me in CNS News

Mark Leonard, foreign policy director at the Center for European Reform in London, said that he expected the E.U. trio to continue on the diplomatic path.

"My feeling is that the diplomatic process will carry on and Iran's strategy based on walking a fine line between giving people enough so that it doesn't lose the support of the international community is going to create a protracted process and not an immediate crisis," he said.

However, Ahmadinejad's unyielding speech at the U.N. may have strengthened Europe's position in the eyes of some developing nations.

If Security Council referral fails, a possible alternative tactic might be for the E.U. to impose its own sanctions such as travel bans and visa restrictions, targeting people associated with the leadership as has been done in the case of Zimbabwe.

Leonard argued that the talks had failed because "the EU hasn't been able to offer a clear enough differentiation - very juicy carrots so that Iran foregoes its attempts to master the fuel cycle, and tough sanctions if it doesn't."

• Here is the piece

As the situation in Iran continues to worsen, I worked with colleagues at the CER and Brookings to draft a US-Europe statement on Iran.

Leading politicians and policy analysts from Europe and the US have signed it . The signatories believe an Iranian nuclear weapons capability would be dangerous and destabilizing. The European Union and the United States have a strong common interest in bringing Iran back to the negotiating table and persuading it to change course. The best way to do that is to make clear to Iran that it can win significant political and economic benefits if it forgoes a nuclear weapons programme, but that it will pay a big political and economic price if it does not. Such an effort will only work if America and Europe stand united. A short version of the statement appears in the International Herald Tribune on September 15th 2005. Signatories include: Giuliano Amato, former Italian prime minister; Samuel R. Berger, former US national security adviser; Lawrence Freedman, professor of war studies at Kings College London; Francis Fukuyama, professor at SAIS; Lord Hannay, former British UN ambassador; Lord Hurd, former British foreign secretary; Robert Kagan, Carnegie Endowment; Mart Laar, former Estonian prime minister; Anthony Lake, former US national security adviser; Joseph S. Nye, Dean of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University; Ana Palacio, former Spanish foreign minister; William J. Perry, former US defence secretary; Lord Robertson, former NATO secretary-general; Narcís Serra, former Spanish defence minister; Anne-Marie Slaughter, Dean of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public Affairs at Princeton; Strobe Talbott, former US deputy secretary of state; and Antonio Vitórino, former European commissioner.

• Read the text of the statement

A Global Strategy for Labour's Third Term

In 1997, Labour set about crafting a coherent foreign policy strategy: shifting from 'Little Englandism' to rules-based internationalism; from beef wars to leading in Europe; and from a 'special relationship' to a new transatlanticism where the EU would engage America in a progressive global political project. Although each of these aims was advanced in important ways in the second term, the perception is that Iraq left them in a state of disrepair. As a result, the government enters the third term with a full agenda for foreign policy, but without a big idea that could galvanise the party and unite the country. There is a big idea whose time has come: democracy. We know that democratic countries don't go to war with each other, or starve or massacre their people. They can cope better with disasters like the tsunami. That is why British foreign policy should have the single over-arching goal of enlarging the global community of democracies. Too often in the past, there has been an idealistic agenda set by NGOs and a real world agenda followed by governments, with very little attempt to link the two. By setting a goal of spreading democracy and the international rule of law, the government can bring coherence to its agenda, set a realistic bench-mark against which individual decisions can be judged, and help to create a progressive consensus which will make it harder for Tory governments to go back to the bad old days.Once the government has an overarching strategy, it will be in a better position to define what it is trying to do in the world. This should have four elements: (a) a policy towards the EU; (b) towards the US; (c) towards rising powers like China, India, and Russia; and (d) in reforming global government.

• Read my piece on grand strategy in Fabian Review

FIVE WAYS OUT OF A NUCLEAR CRISIS

Since the summer of 2003, the so-called EU-3 (Britain, France and Germany) have been

negotiating with the Iranian government to convince it to voluntarily give up its uranium enrichment activities in exchange for trade and help with its civil nuclear programme.

The EU is asking Iran to choose between carrots of trade and technology, and the stick of re f e rral to the UN Security Council. However, without the full engagement of the United States, the EU will struggle to put together a package that could persuade Iran to abandon its programmes. Although the Bush administration made a modest shift towards engagement in March – with offers of aeroplane parts and support for Iran's WTO membership – it now needs to offer further security and economic guarantees in order to save the diplomatic process.

As negotiations enter a period of uncert a i n t y, this paper sets out five possible scenarios for the next few months: "muddling through" without a deal while Iran continues its suspension of uranium enrichment but refuses to make it permanent; a deal which opens the way for a "grand bargain" with the West; an escalating spiral of sanctions after Iran re s t a rts its enrichment activities; a "nuclear compromise" where Iran is allowed to pursue a small-scale heavily-monitored uranium enrichment pilots project; and military strikes on Iranian nuclear targets by the US or Israel. The most likely outcome is a combination of several scenarios.

Policy-makers should pull out all the stops to prevent Iran from going nuclear, in order to prevent an arms race in the Middle East and the end of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). However, they also need to plan for the failure of diplomacy. Putting together proposals for a tough containment policy based around sanctions, security guarantees to Iran's neighbours, and a regional security architecture could strengthen Euro p e 's negotiating hand today.

• Read my pamphlet on the Centre for European Reforms Website

Read my new piece in the Financial Times Magazine

The China hype coursing through western political and business classes is based on a virtual China: the promise of what the People's Republic could become, rather than what it already is. And there are many promises. The Communist party of China rules, but it is not a monolith; and the battle of ideas for the future has contributed to a long process of hedging, now turned into an art form. This has meant projecting Chinese power while reassuring its neighbours of its peaceful intent; adopting laissez-faire capitalism while maintaining a strong state and talking about equality and green development; encouraging grass-roots democracy and opening up the Communist party while strengthening its grip on society. In an essay published last year, the scholar Joshua Cooper Ramo argued that a "Beijing Consensus" will replace the "Washington Consensus" as the dominant model of global development. That might happen, but not until there is consensus on the Consensus.

New Left or "Neo-Comm"? Capitalism or Social Democracy? Co-existence or Containment? The routes open are many - but no one, least of all China, seems to know which way it will go. I have written this piece which looks at the ideological battles raging in China's think-tanks, universities and newspapers.

• Read my piece in the Financial Times Magazine

Don't write the obituaries of France yet….

The gleeful obituaries are piling up, not just for the EU constitution, but for the country that torpedoed it. France is in a mess, we read; its politics are paralysed, its economy is over-regulated and it just can't accommodate itself to globalisation with an Anglo-Saxon face. But before we gorge on schadenfreude we should consider an alternative view: that the French vote was a vote for change. It is too early to say exactly what the No voters wanted, but I find it hard to believe that the cheering young people at the Bastille whose votes disproportionately swelled the No camp were voting for a life of boule and Pastis. For many, it was less a cry to stop the world and let France off than a vote to free France from Chirac and his cabal of out-of-touch enarques.

Judging by this view, the vote could be France's Black Wednesday, a European crisis that frees it from a time-serving government and opens the door to a younger, hungrier leader. Just as Black Wednesday paved the way for Blair, the Non opens the way for a Sarkozy presidency in 2007 that could turn European politics on its head - and make things uncomfortable for the UK.

• read my piece in the New Statesman

Read my article for Foreign Policy Magazine

Despite France's rejection of the European constitution this weekend, there is no reason to imagine the EU won't emerge from the experience stronger than before. Rather than spelling the end of the European project, this referendum points to an EU that is maturing politically.

• Read the piece in Foreign Policy Magazine

Eurovision and European Politics - read my Guardian piece

"People have been texting saying: don't worry, it's all total politics." These words might have soothed a tearful Javine when she failed to rack up more than 18 points in the Eurovision Song Contest, but they are not much comfort to the beleaguered French and Dutch "yes" campaigns left reeling by the results of Europe's most popular kitsch-fest. The song competition voting seemed to sum up European politics all too convincingly: "New Europe" up, "old Europe" down, and Holland nowhere to be seen at all. In France, which came second from last (above Germany), the glitzy contest confirmed all the Gallic suspicions of a European continent moving in a liberal, expansionist, Anglo-Saxon direction.

• Read my piece in The Guardian

Churchill Mania

Maybe this is his finest hour. He is dead and buried in his home country, a venerable figure of history. But in the US, Churchill is alive and well, reborn as an American idol, the most powerful role model for the neo-cons. On January 21, President Bush issued a letter offering "greetings to all those observing the 40th anniversary of the death of Sir Winston Churchill". Not that the president's acolytes need much encouragement. The more discerning neo-cons have been celebrating Churchill's birthday for years. James Mann's portrait of Bush's foreign policy team, Rise of the Vulcans, describes how Leo Strauss, their ideologue-in-chief, turned Churchill-worship into a central tenet of neo-conservatism as early as the 1950s. Mann describes how every year the leading Straussians, including deputy secretary of defense Paul Wolfowitz, convene in Washington to sip brandy and smoke cigars on Churchill's birthday. But their celebrations are as nothing compared with the Winston Churchill Society, which recreates the wartime premier's decadent habits. Their annual dinner was held last autumn in the Lansdowne Resort in Virginia - a recreation of Churchill's 88th birthday meal at London's Savoy, where beef Wellington, oyster bisque with Devon cream, cracked pepper-seared turbot and Pol Roger Champagne were served.

• Read my piece for the Financial Times Magazine

The Chinese Foreign Ministry's thinktank invite me to speak

I'm invited to give a talk about my book by a think-tank linked to the People's Republic's Foreign Ministry. The Chinese are fascinated by my notion of "transformative power", and by the lessons from the EU for "East Asian Community Building". On the same trip I also speak at China's fledgling Davos, the Boao Forum for Asia an international gathering that takes place in a tropical resort on Hainan Island. I argue that the China hype is based on China's virtual power, rather than its actual power and that China has a small window to define how people in the world see it - as an autocratic state that is threatening its neighbours with hegemony and building a sweatshop economy, or as a responsible multilateralist power that is striving to develop high-equity green growth, and moving towards greater political pluralism. The tension between China's internal needs and its external role on energy, nationalism and multilateralism will dertermine how China is seen.

• Information on the China Institute for International Studies
• Information on the Boao Forum
• Read my speech to the "Boao Forum Roundtable"

Of all the recent books that celebrate the merits and the promise of the European Union, this short work, written by the director of foreign policy at the Centre for European Reform, is the most provocative and thoughtful. One can criticize it for not stressing sufficiently the continuing divisions among the EU's members, the shakiness of its common will, or the flaws of its institutions. Nevertheless, the points Leonard makes are strong, and his pungent style reinforces them.

• Read the article in Foreign Affaris

Petra Pinzler predicts that my book will be a best seller

In den Kiosken des Brüsseler Eurokratenviertels liegt ein schmales Buch direkt an der Kasse; ein sicheres Zeichen, dass es in diesem Milieu das Zeug zum Bestseller hat. Unter dem Titel »Warum Europa das 21. Jahrhundert regieren wird« behauptet der britische EU-Experte Mark Leonard in flottem Stil auf 170 Seiten, dass Europa langfristig mehr Einfluss in der Welt haben werde als die USA. Venus siegt über Mars, das wirkt an diesem Ort wie Balsam. Doch so recht mag derzeit niemand dieser Botschaft glauben. In der EU-Hauptstadt geht die Angst um – die Angst vor den Bürgern. Denn die könnten die Union schon bald in die größte Krise seit ihrer Gründung stürzen.

• read the article in Die Zeit

Interview with me in "Les Echos"

«C'est un parfait jeu de miroir. Alors que la Constitution est jugée très britannique en France, les Anglais lui reprochent d'être d'inspiration franco-allemande, donc fédérale», explique Mark Leonard… Les tenants français du «non» reprochent au texte d'être «libéral et régressif» et agitent la perspective d'une entrée de la Turquie dans l'UE. Rien de tel en Grande-Bretagne, où la question turque ne pose aucun problème et où l'on perçoit la Constitution comme le sacre d'une Europe supranationale, non démocratique, antilibérale. Une Europe dommageable à l'économie britannique, comme en témoigne - selon les partisans du «No» - l'ampleur du taux de chômage sur le Vieux Continent, alors que la France assure qu'elle a tout à gagner économiquement du traité. La charte des droits fondamentaux (la partie II du traité), qui évoque le droit de grève dans son article 88, est particulièrement décriée par les milieux d'affaires anglais.

My book quoted in testimony to US House of Representatives

"By giving [the Balkans] candidate status, or "a date for a date" to begin negotiations would create a highly (already in the case of Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria witnessed) motivating moment which mobilizes all resources of society toward democratic reform. A strong incentive is injected which allows for the "soft" transformative power of the EU (Mark Leonard) to begin its work, this in turn creates a positive domino effect. A new bold strategy of enlargement, building on existing best practices is called for. This wholesale approach would counter the frequent piecemeal approaches that have not taken into consideration the need to understand the region in its complexity and mutuality. Clearly, the principle of each country moving at its own speed toward integration and according to its own merits stands immutable. No country can delay the accession process of another. It is the positive competition fostered by the "transformative power of Europe" that can promote and accelerate these processes in the each country.",

Statement of Ivan Vejvoda Executive, Director, Balkan Trust to Committee on House International Relations Subcommittee on Europe, April 6th 2005.

Read this article by JOHN MICKLETHWAIT and ADRIAN WOOLDRIDGE

"It is worth bearing Brentism in mind when considering the recent upsurge in Euro-revisionism. A series of books – notably "Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century" by Mark Leonard, "The United States of Europe" by T.R. Reid and "The European Dream" by Jeremy Rifkin – all take issue with American triumphalism….But too many Europeans are anti-business. Brent's philosophy is rooted not just in working shorter hours (though, God knows, he likes those) but in a mild contempt for the whole affair. He reflects a lingering snobbery about trade and entrepreneurship that Margaret Thatcher fought like a tiger. Brentism helps explain why Europe has no Silicon Valley, no Bill Gates, no Warren Buffett. So if you are American and don't really "get" the humor of "The Office," don't worry. The last laugh may be on us.

• Read their full column in the LA Times

Paul Fabra finds lessons for French "Yes" Camp in my book

A plusieurs égards, le livre dont on va parler est une publication de circonstance. A ceci près qu'on se trouve tout à fait enclin à prendre au sérieux son auteur, Mark Leonard (1), lorsque, arrivé au dixième chapitre - l'avant-dernier-, il nous révèle son propos : « Porter, au-delà des toutes prochaines années, un regard sur la forme que prendra l'ordre du monde au cours de ce siècle. »

• Read Paul Fabra's article in Les Echos

Could it be that the European Union is closer to VISA, the credit card network, than it is to a state? That is what I argue in a piece for the Globalist web-site.

"Like the banks that own and control VISA, it is the EU's national governments that set the agenda for the future of Europe."

• Read the piece on the Globalist web-site…..

…..and Cristina Odone writes it up in her Observer column

"Whither Britain?… Turner Prize-winner Grayson Perry sees Britain, [as]: 'Middle aged and mature, with none of that Hollywood nonsense.' Perry and I were among a group who met as part of the Dinner with Michael Portillo television series. Timothy Garton Ash led a discussion about Britain's place in the world and drew conflicting takes from those assembled. Mary Kaldor of the LSE, Kate Hudson, who heads CND, and Josie Appleton of Spiked online saw Britain as a bully who had to make amends for its sinful past. Mark Leonard, inventor of 'Cool Britannia', sees Britain as instrumental in the EU. And Portillo and I agreed that the 21st-century Briton is seen as a cheeky chappie a la Jamie Oliver - irreverent, determined, sure of itself.

(in brief…)

A British Euro-enthusiast, Leonard believes that Europe can best lay the template for a new world order made of multiple regional powers. Already, he argues, the EU is becoming the powerful model the United States once was: China owes much to the lessons in regional integration it learned from Europe. For Europeans, this makes for comforting reading. Yet on issues such as the Constitution, Leonard's confidence in Europe's destiny can be hard to reconcile with the indifference of so many of its citizens

via a "Statesman" column about my book by Jonathan Power

"The European debate in Britain has no sense of history. A deep and disturbing malaise has descended on Britain's European debate and one powerful reason for that is that the agenda and the discourse are set by journalists and not by historians. Politicians too often seem to be fearful of challenging the journalistic agenda and spelling out more than a day-to-day, nuts and bolts vision of Europe."

• read the rest of Power's article about my book

"Not many books about the European Union are fun to read. This one is; and, more than that, it tells the political story of the EU better than any other I know. This is not a surprise from Mark Leonard, who is something between an infant prodigy and an enfant terrible in the world of foreign affairs…."

• Read the rest of Cooper's article in the Sunday Times

Peter Aspden writes about my pamphlet on Public Diplomacy

When the world was safely cocooned in the bipolar stand-off that was known as the cold war, it was easy to read culture: to know what it was trying to do, and which side it was on. The world was defined by a single schism, and all other divisions and spectrums of opinion were deemed subservient to it. The logic was crude, remorseless and produced occasionally startling results.

• Read the full piece from the Financial Times Magazine
• Read the new pamphlet on which the piece is based

Are we heading for 'fiscal Armageddon'? On 22 March 2002, I took part in a debate against Jonny Munkhammer the Director of Timbro, Sweden's free market think-tank who has recently written a book called "the collapse of Big Government". Garerth Harding wrote it up in the Washington Times…..

• read the Washington Times article

with Asmus, Cooper, Lindberg, and Kornelius

On March 8, the German Marshall Fund's Transatlantic Center in Brussels hosted the book release for Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century by Mark Leonard.

The event, attended by a packed audience of more than 150 participants, included a panel discussion moderated by Dr. Ronald D. Asmus, executive director of the Transatlantic Center, and including Mr. Leonard, Robert Cooper, a senior advisor to Javier Solana at the European Council; Tod Lindberg, editor of Policy Review; and Stefan Kornelius, foreign editor of Süddeutsche Zeitung .

• Read the GMF's account of the event

I'm in the strange position of defending the decision

International Herald Tribune: "It's not like Nelson Mandela or the Dalai Lama were on the short list," said Mark Leonard, director of foreign policy at the Center for European Reform, in London.

Washington Post: Other people said Wolfowitz's intellect, commitment to spreading democracy and closeness to the White House might make him an effective World Bank chief. "Everyone knows he won't just manage the status quo, that he'll make the World Bank a player," said Mark Leonard, director of foreign policy of the Center for European Reform, a London-based research organization.

The Star Ledger: The best take on the Wolfowitz nomination comes from Mark Leonard of the London- based Center for European Reform.

• See the piece in the IHT
• See the piece in the Washington Post
• See piece in the Star Legder

Published by Profil: 11 March 2005

Zwar wird immer wieder über die europäische Krise und die Allmacht des amerikanischen Imperiums geklagt, allmählich aber werden jene Gegenstimmen immer lauter, die Europa eine große Zukunft voraussagen, wie etwa jene des britischen Essayisten Mark Leonard, dessen neues Buch den schlichten Titel trägt: „Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century" („Warum Europa das 21. Jahrhundert dominieren wird").

• read the full article in Profil Magazin

With all this talk about democracy in the Middle East, I decided to explore the situation on the ground in Egypt and discovered that Egypt's big democratic hope has been put in prison. Read it all in the FT Magazine.

• Article from FT Magazine

A thought for Europeans as George W. Bush returns to Washington. You can keep faith with your opposition to the Iraq war. You can remain true to the argument that global security depends on respect for the rule of law from the powerful as well as the weak. Now, stop and think. None of the above should leave Europe on the side of tyranny and stability in the contest with freedom and democracy.

For the first time in 50 years, it is the U.S. that needs Europe's help, rather than the other way around. Read more of my piece in Time Magazine.

• Article in Time

Because news is told by journalists rather than historians, Europe's power is easy to miss. But a new kind of power has evolved which is about spreading your norms rather than getting your way on each decision.

• Prospect article