The International Implications of China's Rise
Mark Leonard
Centre for European Reform
Boao Forum 2005
The "China Opportunity"
China's rise has so far created enormous economic opportunities for the world, and China's entry into the world as a globally responsible power committed to multilateralism and the international rule of law has the potential to present the world with the same positive opportunities for solving global political problems that are at least as exciting as the benefits we have already experienced in the economic sphere.
So maybe from that perspective I can offer a European perspective on the way you are dealing with China's rise, and to offer a little friendly advice.
It is natural that China should primarily be focused on its internal economic challenges – they are many and by bringing hundreds of millions of people out of poverty China does not merely benefit itself, it creates a global public good. However, as China develops, its internal developments increasingly have an impact on the interests and concerns of other countries around the world.
"Virtual Power" and the challenge of defining China
China has already acquired a vast amount of "virtual power" – based not on its actual assets but on its potential. The momentum behind China's rise is creating a lot of excitement and good will towards the People's Republic all over the world. China Hype is omnipresent. This creates an opportunity and a challenge. The opportunity is the chance for China to define itself in the minds of the international public and elites that have not focused very much on China in the past – before things get locked in place. The minds of many European policy-makers are a blank canvas that China can fill in from scratch. The challenge is that many people are trying to define China in a more negative way. If China is seen as "the new Bush" in the public mind – using its power to secure its own objectives, being systematically unhelpful on global problems it could become stuck in that framework for a long period of time.
I think that Chinese policy-makers are placed in a double conundrum for: on the one hand they want to test their new power and at the same time they want to re-assure the world that they will not abuse it.
From a European perspective, we have seen Chinese attempts to test its new power on the arms embargo, market economy status, and the anti-secession law. However much European commentary has focused on the extent to which China has failed to match its demands with progress on the issues that Europeans are most concerned about such as the ratification of the International Convention on Civil and Political Rights. Many European commentators have also noted that China – in spite of its reputation for having a very long-term perspective on political issues – often focuses on its short-term interests, whilst showing scepticism about the suggestion that WMD, terrorism, failing states, or climate change have very much to do with them.
I have been impressed at the extent to which Chinese policy makers realise that acquiring power brings its own dangers. So even as you announce your arrival on the world stage, you have been developing a new Grand Strategy based on re-assurance: stressing China's commitment to peace; your lack of hegemonic ambitions; your desire for amicable relations with the US; your commitment to multilateral and regional institutions; and a concerted use of 'soft power' and culture to re-assure the world.
The challenges for the future
Looking forward there are three areas where China will need to geive careful thought to how it defines itself in the European consciousness. They are all tricky because the reveal a tension between your internal needs and your external role.
Three areas:
· The Neighbourhood. The peaceful Rise and East Asian Community provide a real opportunity to engage Europeans. But Chinese Nationalism and the tensions with Taiwan and Japan are having a toxic impact on how China is seen around the world.
· Energy Diplomacy. China's energy needs are forcing it to look beyond its region and to develop partnerships in Africa, Central Asia, and Latin America. Its burgeoning relationships with countries like Iran, Sudan and Zimababwe put you in a position to exert influence over states that concern the west, but shielding these regimes from censure on the UN security Council and frustrating western attempts to deal with human rights abuses and wmd could lead to an emerging sense of China as a "selfish superpower".
· Multipolarity and Multilateralism. As China's economy grows and becomes ever more globalised, China is becoming increasingly keen on developing a "rule-based world order". This creates an opportunity for EU-China collaboration, but also threatens to create tensions over differing approaches to sovereignty, intervention and the debate about reforming the United Nations.
The possibility of a grand bargain on global issues
The tensions over the arms embargo show that for all of China's virtual power – the days of getting something for nothing are not here yet. What we need instead is an idea of a grand bargain where China and Europe move in step with each other. This could have several pillars:
1. Working together in global institutions like the UN – and collaborating on their reform.
2. Collaborating on global problems like climate change, WMD, failing states.
3. Establishing a dialogue about our respective policies in Africa and Central Asia.
4. Creating a new institutional framework for the relationship.
These are just a few ideas of what a grand bargain might look like as the EU-China relationship moves from being predominantly an economic one to being a global strategic partnership. As China rises, in the world no one will challenge its pursuit of national interests. But as it becomes a greater power its responsibilities will grow and the time-scale of its interests will need to grow too. That is how it can re-assure its partners and ensure that the world focuses on the "China Oppportunity".